What if...

09/27/2005 -- With all the news on the hurricane and the plight of the people in that area, I decided to do a little test, kind of a preparedness test to see how I might fare if disaster loomed.  As an outdoorsman and generally self-reliant individual, I've always had the early mountain man attitude that I could survive almost anywhere if only given my knife and my muzzleloader (that's what they said of themselves).

So, what was my test?  Ten minutes to decide what I would grab if I suddenly had to leave the house and survive given a general "emergency" with the rule of thumb that I couldn't come back.  Given that my pockets typically hold a fair supply of cash, credit cards, and pocket knives, if civilization didn't completely give out, that's all a guy would need if he could drive away.  But, I went with the frame of mind that it may take a while to get somewhere either walking or being rescued.

First off, I grabbed my backpack figuring I would only take what it would hold.  Thus I could carry one of my children.  (Did I mention my backpack is kind of already packed with what a guy might want if he was going out into the woods to survive?  I guess that's part of being a naturalist in that I give a talk about once a year on backpacking and so I just leave the pack full of stuff.)  At this point, I dumped everything out and decided what I should repack.  Extra clothes wouldn't be needed to actually survive so, out they went along with most of the cooking gear.  I left one pot and two meals of freeze-dried food (that's all I had).  I left in the fire building kit and compass. 

My first thought was an old axiom, "this before all else, be armed."  So into the pack went a pistol and two boxes of ammo.  Katrina taught us that armed thugs would be loose, and a man should be able to defend himself.

Already in my backpack were my two water filters.  They are good ones--four micron I think, thus it filters out all bacteria, most viruses and even most chemical pollutants.   I have two, and one would be a good trade item with other potential survivors.  Also already in the pack was a small med kit, including a few bandages and some common medicines.  Next into the pack went a water bottle, I took the time to fill it.  I took out the sleeping bag.  Figuring its summer now, I wouldn't need it to survive, but would have left it in if it was winter.  Also going out was the sleeping pad.  I left in the rope, about 20 feet of thin yet strong line.

I headed down the stairs, grabbed a jar of peanut butter (it was the quickest thing I could think of that had a lot of food energy value), and started thinking about the kids.  In went a bottle of milk for Thomas (yes, I know it wouldn't last long, but it would at least be something for the first couple hours when the major thinking process of survival might be at hand and a guy would need some time to think) and a couple diapers.  Also in went a coat for each boy.  Then I headed out into the garage for a piece of plastic.  I had some left over from the last construction project and cut off a big piece (maybe 8x10 feet).

I didn't involve Laura in my little project, but figured that in a true emergency, she would be doing the same thing, grabbing something useful and one kid and trying to survive, so I mentally took the other (Thomas).

With the last minute and a little space left in the pack, I threw in a couple cans of soup.  Given a meal or two and water, a guy could travel quite a ways to seek some sort of safety even if he had to walk.

Then I started thinking what kind of emergency might we face in North Iowa.  Floods here that would reach my house?  Not in a thousand years, but two boats are currently in my possession right now, so no problem.  Earthquake?  Probably the house would have collapsed with me in it so no worries, right?  Tornado?  Given some warning, we would have been in the basement, and now the house would have been scattered around the neighborhood.  Help would be less than a mile or two away from the storm path.  No survival gear needed.  Fire?  No thanks, already had one.

Worst case scenario would be a volcano in the Rocky Mountains that would strew ash across the Midwest.  It did happen before around 10,000 years ago in history and may happen again ( a movie last year portrayed that).  So with that scenario, a guy would have to figure he would have a few hours before the ash starts falling.  So, you'd have to decide if you want to ride it out staying put, or head some cardinal direction (most likely south).  Last time, scientists figure it dropped two feet of ash in most parts of Iowa.  If you made it to southern Iowa, you might be out of the path of say a Yellowstone super volcano.  Short term survival is a good prospect just staying put if you kept the ash off your roof so the house didn't collapse.  Long term would be tough and you would probably want to leave.  Given that many other people would come to the same conclusion, I'd probably head south on the smallest county roads that I could find to avoid jam packed highways as soon as I heard about the eruption.  That got me thinking about who I knew in what states and would they be likely to take me and my family in?

It was a kind of fun exercise in natural disaster thinking.  I once read that true wealth is only what you can carry with you on a dead run.  It gives a guy a little thought about what he might have that could escape a sudden imminent disaster.